Problem 2 [15 points total]-For this question you may consult outside sources for informationabout

electoral politics in the US.

Consider figures 1-1 and 1-2 (included at the end of the homework assignment), drawn from Ray

Fair’s data on predicting presidential election outcomes. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship

between the country’s economic growth rate in the year of the election and the incumbent vote

percentage in the election. The data points are identified with the year the election took place.

Figure 1-2 is a similar graph, but with economic growth replaced with the yearly inflation rate.

a) [4 points] Consider figure 1-1. What do these data imply about the relationship

between economic growth and incumbent vote share in the election? Now consider

the data points for 1972 and 1976. How do the incumbent votes for these two

elections modify, if they do at all, your interpretation of the relationship between inflation and incumbent
vote share?
c) [6 points] What do figures 1-1 and 1-2 taken together tell you about the old adage
about presidential politics: “It’s the economy, stupid!”? What are some other
plausible factors that explain the pattern of outcomes we see? Please write no more

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