Replies: In Module/Week 2: Post a substantive reply to the thread of at least 2

Replies: In Module/Week 2: Post a substantive reply to the thread of at least 2 classmates. A substantive reply includes at least 150 words analyzing the thread as well as adding to the research and concepts put forth in that thread. The goal is to create meaningful discussion. To simply restate the idea already put forth or to concur with the first reply is not adding substantial discussion. That is why it is good to do additional outside research. Post your replies in the forum textbox, not in an attachment like you did for your thread, to the thread with which you would like to respond. Discussion criteria for this assignment are fulfilled when you have posted 1 thread (concerning your topic) and 2 replies (1 each to 2 classmates’ threads). Make sure to provide scholarly and educational material and work that is engaging and substantive. Simply meeting the minimum requirements earns one only the minimum grade. APA format Shunta’ Dunn (Seven Cycles) Option A: One can find a plethora of information by searching the internet. Google is a great search engine that can lead one to results on almost any search criteria. While searching Google on the internet, one can find in their quest, recent examples of an organization that utilizes forecasting to provide information on future demands. Seven Cycle is one of those organization that displays their forecasting strategies. The company’s website is www.sevencycles.com. Here, one can see that this organization utilize the Just-in-Time manufacturing (JIT) method. This means that it is more feasible for a business such as Seven Cycle to only manufacture or order more products when orders are placed by consumers. The money the company will spend on excess manufacturing and storage of unsold products could be spent on assets that will earn income for the organization. The Small Business News Articles reveals, “The concept of just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing and ordering helps a business keep just enough inventory on hand to meet demand. To implement a JIT system, you must have accurate sales forecasts” (Johnston, p. 1). According to the owner of Seven Cycles, Rob Vandermark, “JIT is the idea that our own manufacturing inventory only arrives exactly when we need it to, that a rider ordering a bike actually triggers the process of the bike’s component parts beginning to move toward the bike builder’s work space. This is the method that supports the madness of Single-Piece Flow, and the myriad complications of building fully custom bikes on a short timeline. We make it work by doing a lot of forecasting. After crafting 30,000 bikes, one-at-a-time, by-hand, we have a lot of data to crunch, so we do our best to see the future, the materials we’ll need to build the bikes our riders will want.” (p. 1). Furthermore, the impact this type of forecasting method has on Seven Cycle’s is very innovative for this line of business. JIT is successful through streamlining process and tighten inventory, which ultimately guides to clearly defining each design before the company begins to build a bike. “Another thing we do is keep all of our materials in their rawest form. First, we reduce the amount of inventory we need to keep on hand. Second, we maintain control over the refinement of the materials, so that we’re refining them for their specific rider, rather than just turning out generic tube sets. And third, we maintain a tighter control over the quality of our materials. Smaller lots of tubing are easier to inspect. Furthermore, with using JIT it narrows the business focus on process, while adding a sense of urgency to each build” (Vandermark, p. 1). Indeed, many may believe that bikes only sell at certain times of the year, however, some form of forecasting is still necessary. Forecasting assist in examining sales patterns to see when sales have shown peaks and valleys. In any business, there are rising and falling sales, and preparation is needed for both. Seven Cycle is the world’s largest custom bicycle frame builders, which means that their forecasting has to take in consideration for regional demands, not just for local consumers. In other words, their forecasting is based on a defined customer group in a specific geographic area during a certain time frame. In many cases, some forecasting may be an educated guess, but at least there is a recognizable goal set in place. When the company make sales forecasts, they can determine the market demand for their products in the near future. Angela, Forecasting in Organizations Forecasting involves collecting data to predict a future outcome. Forecasting plays a key role in making decisions of a firm for example in determining the demand for a product in future. Organization uses several methods such as survey and statistical methods to determine the future demand. International Coffee Organization carried out research last year to determine the future global demand for coffee. The International Coffee Organization conducted a survey in coffee producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia to determine their productivity. The organization also carried a survey in the countries that imports large volumes of coffee such as China and European countries. According to Nicholas Bariyo of The Wall Street Journal, “the demand for coffee is likely to increase over the next five years.” The organization projected that the countries that imports coffee will increase their consumption in the subsequent years. The increase in coffee is due to the changing lifestyle where some countries such as China are adopting the western culture (Bariyo, 2015). The forecast is very crucial to the coffee farmers globally. The focus will enable coffee farmers to find new ways of producing coffee to meet the rising demand, for instance, the farmers can borrow to increase their investment in the agricultural sector. The forecast also will enable governments of coffee producing nation also to invest heavily in the industry to take advantage of the increasing demand (Bariyo, 2015). In conclusion, forecasting plays a crucial role in determining the future demands. The Wall Street Journal article of International Coffee Organization shows how the organization carried out a survey to determine the future global demand of coffee. The organization predicted that there would be a demand for coffee in the future. The forecast will help coffee farmers to enhance their production methods to meet the high demand.

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