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1. Although the yield curve is our best choice as a predictive indicator of recessions better than other indicators as past studies have indicated, why do recent studies as Gogas, Padpadimitrtriou, Matthaiou, and Chrysanthidou (2015) suggest indicate that over the past decade “its forecasting ability is diminished”?

Gogas, P., Padpadimitrtriou, T., Matthaiou, M., & Chrysanthidou, E. (2015). Yield curve and recession forecsting in a machine learning framework. Comput Econ, 45, 635-645. doi:10.1007/s10614-014-9432-0

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