50-Step Assembly Line

50-Step Assembly Line

Consider an assembly line with 50 steps that are carried out sequentially. Each of the 50 steps has a defect probability of 1%. The final product produced on the assembly line is defective if any one of the 50 steps made a defect.

At the end of the assembly line there are two operators independently inspecting the product. Each of them is recognizing a defective product with a 90% probability. Assuming that the product is not defective, it is moved to the shipping department. Otherwise, the product is scrapped.

Probability that a defective product is produced (independent of the defect being found or not) (in decimal form):

What is the probability that a defective product is moved to the shipping department?


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