Donna’s garden supply wants to forecast storage shed sales using a moving average forecasting method.
Donna’s garden supply wants to forecast storage shed sales using a moving average forecasting method. Calculate
the forecast for November using a simple 2-period weighted average forecast. Enter your answer as an integer rounding UP to the nearest integer.
10 points QUESTION 2
Donna’s Garden Supply wants to forecast storage shed sales by using a weighted moving 3 month average, weighting the most recent month as 50%, the second most recent at 33.3% and the third most recent month by 16.7%.
Calculate the forecast for October (with the same chart as previously). Enter your answer as an integer and round UP to the nearest integer.
10 points QUESTION 3
The Port of Baltimore unloaded 180 tons of grain last quarter. They had forecasted unloading 175 tons of grain for that quarter. Use this data to calculate a forecast for tons of grain to be unloaded in the coming quarter using the exponential smoothing method with an alpha = 0.3. Enter your answer to one decimal place.
10 points QUESTION 4
During the past 8 quarters, the Port of Baltimore has unloaded large quantities of grain from ships. The port’s operations manager wants to test the use of exponential smoothing to see how well the technique works in predicting tonnage unloaded. Details are given in the graphic below for forecasts using α = 0.10 and α = 0.50. MAD for the α = 0.10 forecast is 10.31. Calculate the MAD for the α = 0.50 forecast.
10 points QUESTION 5
Calculate the MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error) for the forecast with alpha = 0.1.
Enter your answer as a decimal (not a percentage) to four decimal places.
10 points QUESTION 6
Calculate the MSE (mean squared error) for the port of baltimore’s forecast using alpha = 0.1
Enter your answer as a decimal to two decimal places.
10 points QUESTION 7
Carlson’s bakery wants to evaluate the performance of its croissant forecast. Calculate the tracking signal at the end of quarter 6.
10 points QUESTION 8
Des Moines Distributor of Sony Laptop Computers wants to develop monthly seasonal indices for sales. Data from the past three years, by month, are available. Calculate the seasonal index for the month of August. Enter your answer as a decimal to 3 places.
10 points QUESTION 9
If Des Moines Distributor expects the total demand for computers to be 1,200 units next year, calculate the forecast for demand for the month of June assuming the seasonal index for June is 1.223. Enter your answer as an integer, rounding up to the nearest integer.
10 points QUESTION 10
The department manager is using a combination of methods to forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. He has built a forecast using his own “special” technique (details in the table below) for months July through December. Build a Naïve forecast of your own (a naive forecast simply takes the previous month’s actual sales and uses that number as the prediction for the next month).
Calculate the percentage improvement in MAD that the manager’s special forecast method gives over the naive forecast. This is calculated by taking (MAD naive – MAD manager’s)/MAD Naive. Enter your answer as a decimal (not a percentage) to 3 decimal places.
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