Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?b)
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Thank you. ATTACHMENT PREVIEW Download attachment4.2a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plotyour forecast on the same graph as the original data.c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average withweights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.4.6MONTHSALESJanuary20February21March15April14May13June16July17August18September20October20November21December23a) Plot the monthly sales data.b) Forecast January sales using each of the following:
View the Answeri) Naive method.ii) A 3-month moving average.iii) A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weightsapplied to the most recent months.iv) Exponential smoothing using an α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.v) A trend projection.c) With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March’s sales?4.9 Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip duringthe past 12 months were as follows:a) Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the averages and the prices.b) Use a 3-month moving average and add the 3-month plot to the graph created in part (a).c) Which is better (using the mean absolute deviation): the 2-month average or the 3-monthaverage?d) Compute the forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecastfor January of $1.80. Use α = .1, then α = .3, and finally α = .5. Using MAD, which a is the best?
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