# Using Tree Plan , construct a decision tree and determine the optimal strategy.

August 15, 2019
###### Will is a 68-year-old male with a history of hypertension. Eight months ago, he started regular dialysis therapy for ESRD. Before that, his physician was closely monitoring his condition because he had polyuria and nocturia. Soon it became difficult to manage his hypertension. He also lost his appetite, became weak, easily fatigued, and had edema around his ankles. Will debated with his physician about starting dialysis, but she insisted, before the signs and symptoms of uremia increased, the treatment was absolutely necessary.
August 15, 2019

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The Sandwich Decision A national restaurant chain has developed a new specialty sandwich. Initially, it faces two possible decisions: introduce the sandwich nationally at a cost of \$200,000 or evaluate it in a regional test market at a cost of \$30,000. If it introduces the sandwich nationally, the chain might find either a high or low response to the idea. Probabilities of these events are estimated to be 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. With a high response, gross revenues of \$700,000 (at NPV) are expected; with a low response, the figure is \$150,000. If it starts with a regional marketing strategy, it might find a low response or a high response at the regional level with probabilities 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. This may or may not reflect the national market potential. In any case, the chain next needs to decide whether to remain regional, market nationally, or drop the product. If the regional response is high and it remains regional, the expected revenue is \$200,000. If it markets nationally (at an additional cost of \$200,000), the probability of a high national response is 0.9 with revenues of \$700,000 (\$150,000 if the national response is low). If the regional response is low and it remains regional, the expected revenue is \$100,000. If it markets nationally (at an additional cost of \$200,000), the probability of a high national response is 0.05 with revenues of \$700,000 (\$150,000 if the national response is low). a. Using Tree Plan , construct a decision tree and determine the optimal strategy. b. Conduct sensitivity analyses for the probability estimates using both one- and two-way data tables as appropriate. c. Develop the risk profile associated with the optimal strategy. d. Evaluate the risk associated with this decision, considering that it is a one-time decision. e. Summarize all your results, including your recommendation and justification for it, in a formal report to the executive in charge of making this decision.

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